Trading ( fx , stocks , ...) & Nofap

I like your reasoning. You are no rookie

 

I am a rookie, those things take years of experience to master, I am currently two years in the markets. Experienced the bull-run and now experiencing the bear market, lots of lessons learned.

Here is a visulation of the scenario I am waiting for. Big last leg down to scare the rest of the Bitcoin bulls, make them sell the rest of their HODL stacks and get their sells absorbed. Its just a game of big fish eating the small fishies, that is what it is.



You gotta be aware of the current market sentiment so I would not put life savings in BTC unless we see some strength in the equities and see weakness in the US dollar

 

Then we are at least in agreement that bitcoin has still much lower to go to. Your visualisation shows 9000. I still wish you luck though.

 

There are some indications that the bottom might be brewing. You see lots of volume coming in but the price is not reacting as wildly to it, volatility is very low. From the market maker perspective you need to create violent move either up or down to generate interest for the retail money which is then usually used as a fuel for an opposite direction against the average Joe.
I would like the move down, but it seems like liquidity to the downside is drying up, there is not enough selling yet. If you look back there was always the final big dump before reversal so if it happens I would see that as an opportunity...

 

You sound very absolute my friend. Well, it may happen or it may not. There's a greater chance that it will not happen the way that you seem to be waiting on. Honestly, it seems more appropriate to me, that one move down a lower time frame and focus on accumulating gains over waiting on something like this to occur while you do what? I don't know.

 

Thinking in absolutes is never a good idea, I agree. This is a high timeframe idea I have, I am trading the lower timeframes as well of course. What I presented is just an idea I have for a spot accumulation for another leg up or potential start of a bull market.

 

Something worth looking at when looking for an investment is the S&P index. This might look overly bearish, but if we are in a bubble and the bubble wants to go bust where do you think the markets will bottom out?
If the recession is going to continue and FED will keep the interest rates high this is a possible scenario. How else do you want to ease the inflation if not by removing trillions of dollars from the retail investors and ruining their lives and hopes for a recovery?

 

How has this theory worked out for you during THESE times?

I'm curious

 

I am not sure he is active here anymore. But I can tell you from my experience that since I am doing NoFap I get way better concentration on trading than before.
What is wrong about these times? If you are an investor you should be cautious but as a trader you have plenty of opportunities to open good trades both ways.

 

Its just more of a genuine question especially from novice in the stocks like myself.

I know NoFap is magic, I'm just curious of his results during times where it seems like a lot of ppl are losing out

 

Majority is always loosing, you have to find a way how to not be in the majority crowd. Chances are we have seen a big bubble that is about to go bust. Where do you think the majority of retail bought? Are this people still holding the assets they bought for the premium price? Price is going to go down until they sell, most of them anyway.

I trade crypto so I am not very knowledgeable about the stock market. But I can tell you how the big fish play with the small fish in crypto markets. Price is generally drawn to the areas of liquidity, where the stops are or the over-leveraged traders have their liquidation points.
For example, price dips down until no one is willing to buy, because they bought and got stoped out or are underwater already, so they decide to go short. Price might go in their favour and give them feeling of a reasonable trade. But in fact price went down only to stop out the rest of buyers and enable someone with big hands use their stops to fill big buy. Those poor traders who decided to go short too late are now forced to close their shorts and because of that the price goes higher. The same thing then happens at the tops. People who sold the bottom are then rushing to buy the tops only to later realise that they bought the top and sold the bottom. Those traders then disappear with empty pockets but market makers are thankful for them. Where you get the new unexperienced traders now? Thankfully there are plenty of influencers around the net to provide with enough of shilling and simple retail technical analysis that doesn’t work more than it does. Fresh and inexperienced money are vital for the markets.

You can still make money when the markets go down if you trade futures. Chances are, if you give trading a try, that you will keep on loosing for at least a year. I have been trading for two years and I am becoming break even just now. Thousands of hours spend at the screens trying to understand price action and more than thousand euro spend on education. For me it was worthwhile, is it for anybody? I do not think so. PATIENCE, DISCIPLINE, ENDURANCE - traits that you have to master day by day to become consistent and NoFap definitely helps to do that.

 

Not a trader, but a value investor here.

I can see the relationship as well though. I form a thesis and enter a position that I should hold for even years before I am proven right or wrong. A position can keep moving against me for a very long time without proving my thesis wrong. So, it's very tempting to sell, even though there's no excuse for it.

Semen retention surely helps with training yourself to not react out of emotion, so I'm with you on that.

 

Stocks are a dead end. You won't make a dime out of it. And starting out, people tend to think that they will hold their position for x years and double their money or something. That's not how it works. The only way you can make considerable profits out of stock investing is, if you possess a significant capital. You already have to have a large capital to make any worthwhile gains. So, that leaves beginners with no option but to look into other instruments.

Investing is strictly for those who possess sizeable capital. If you have a small account and you're thinking you can make profits out of investing, please stop this day dreaming right away.

 

This kind of thinking in absolutes fails to capture the countless parameters that affect the success (or failure) of a stock investor or trader.

Nevertheless, you're right when it comes to most cases. You need money to make money. But a lot of stock investors are realistic in their expectations, so such commentary is needlessly discouraging. I, for instance, don't have a lot of capital. I'm a young guy and my power is in my income, not my wealth. Would you suggest I shouldn't invest because I don't have a lot of money today?

Do you understand how being persistent in your contributions, conservative in your selections, and patient make compounding do its wonders after decades?

Choosing to not invest because of a lack of capital is very silly.

 

I do agree.

 

I just told you as it is. It's simple and straight. If you found that discouraging then I can't help it. I won't consider your 'feelings', but the fact is. Investing will never, take that from me, never make you anything. Fullstop.

Say you have 1000$ in your bank. Now, with the 'hope' of making money off stocks, you invest in whatever equity. And you expect to gain what? If you are realistic here, you will not make anything above 20%, and that too is a far cry. You have to have considerable mastery over fundamental analysis, and I'll tell you this, I honestly believe fundamentals are the last thing that stocks regard. Forget that 20%, your stock could move against you for months, or even years, or just as might do nothing and go sideways. So, again, considering that it works in your favor and your fundamental analysis is proven correct. Even if you did make 20%, how much did you gain at the end of year? 200$, two hundred dollars. And don't forget, you had to risk 100% of your capital. You could have easily lost 200$ on the downside.

 

You do not lose money investing, you lose value, unless you sell with a loss of course. You could have been buying the tops of the stock market for the past decades and still make it a good investment if you held through the recessions. Would not make you rich but could be considered a good hedge against the inflation, better than holding your money in the bank.

 

Technically, he has lost, considering that price went against his bid. Until, ofcourse, If it recovered and went back to the upside.

 

Your posts can be hardly discouraging, nor affect anyone's feelings because you clearly have no idea what you're talking about.

You chose to ignore my argument about compounding in the hope that your thesis which is short-sighted and has no ground remains intact.

I will make it even simpler for you through an example. Forget fundamental analysis skills (btw, no, equity value does respond to fundamentals over the long run; if you want, I can provide you with as much evidence as you like in my next post).

If you invested $500 per month in an index fund that grows at an average compound rate of 8% per year, you will have about $670,000 after three decades. If you just put it in the bank or under the mattress, you will have accumulated $180,000. That's almost half a million dollars of pure profit.

You see how just relying on your income power, your persistence with contributions, and time can make a difference?

Now, what would be your advice to someone who can invest $500 per month? To just forget it and have fun with the extra cash instead?

Let me use your argument to show you how silly it is. "Just forget it. In year 2, you will just have made $480. It's not worth it". But who does invest for just one year and expects to make anything? Only bad speculators have such expectations.

In year 3, you have contributed $18,000 and made a $1,478.4 profit
In year 4, you have contributed $24,000 and made a $3,036.67 profit
In year 5, you have contributed $30,000 and made a $5,199.61 profit

Nothing, right?

Skip over to year 20 and your contributions have been $120,000. Your profit? $154,571.79.

Do you understand how compounding works or is it the first time you encounter it? If the latter, I envy you. You can start making good financial decisions from now at least.

Your first fallacious argument is basically that you're not going to make money off of stocks because if you invest $1,000 today and gain 20% after a year, you are going to make $200, which we all agree it's nothing. But you are referring to a specific audience that does have an expectation to make money as fast as possible through the stock market. But you don't specify that you talk to such an audience, so I feel the need to correct your absolute thesis on the matter.

Your second one is that more or less if you don't get consistent returns, you're screwed. A position can move against me for months and even years (especially because of what I select). But when my thesis is proven correct, my return, if calculated based on an average compound rate of return, can end up being what I targeted in retrospect.

Same with indexing. If you invest long enough you are going to experience some painful drawdowns. But it's the average compound return that matters.

Fear not, I may be putting an effort into being as clear as possible, but I am not trying to persuade you at all. There are, however, young people who may be watching (now or in the future) these posts. And if they don't understand simple facts like how compounding works, they may get discouraged by your flawed understanding of investing and make stupid financial decisions like leaving money in the bank.

And this is unacceptable. Not that someone may not invest, but that they won't invest because of a short-sighed way of thinking about investing.

 

If that was the only problem with his arguments, I wouldn't even bother. lol

Everyone knows what a loss on paper is. Who cares if one person doesn't?